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It then applies the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify the dates of peaks and troughs. These dates suggest that on average, expansions in India are 12 quarters long and recessions run for 9 quarters.

Findings The paper finds three periods of recession. The paper offers evidence of change in the nature of cycles.

ABSTRACT: Purpose This paper presents a chronology of Indian business cycles in the post-reform period.

In India, earlier, macroeconomic shocks were about droughts and oil prices.

While I don't have access to a similar metric for the EU, eurostat does have a labor cost metric which was recently released: To sum up: overall GDP growth is very weak, industrial production is still meaningfully below pre-recession levels, employment growth is non-existent and wage growth is paltry.

Business cycles are the short-run fluctuations in aggregate economic activity around its long-run growth path.

It is the “ups and downs” in economic activity, defined in terms of periods of expansion or recession.a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real gross domestic product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales A BCDC maintains a chronology comprising alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity.

The idea of a business cycle dating committee (BCDC) is not popular among Indian policy makers. Most of the research in business cycles is done keeping in mind advanced industrial economies.

The scarcity of research for studies of business cycles in India along with data limitations might be some of the reasons why policymakers in India are not too concerned about this issue.




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